In this Office Hours, recorded from Abu Dhabi following reports that the United States and Israel have struck Iranian infrastructure, Roy analyzes what this moment represents — and what could come next. He argues that targeting state infrastructure rather than the governing regime risks repeating the mistakes of Iraq in 2003, and notes that Iran has spent decades preparing hardened, tunnel-based military assets for precisely this scenario. The discussion covers Iranian retaliation against U.S. bases across the region, warnings about the Strait of Hormuz, and how even a short disruption could shock global oil supply. They question whether external strikes genuinely help the Iranian people, examine possible political motivations inside the United States, and assess Israel’s capacity for sustained conflict. Roy warns that prolonged bombing could consolidate domestic support for the regime rather than weaken it. More broadly, the episode explores whether this conflict signals a deeper unraveling of Pax Americana — and how a world increasingly tolerant of territorial aggression raises the risk of catastrophic miscalculation.
